FlyweightSat, Sep 195:00 PM ET

Casey O'NeillvsEduarda Moura

Our read

O'NeillMoura

72%28%

From the corner

O'Neill is younger, has the reach edge, and lands nearly three times the strikes with sharper accuracy on the feet. Moura wants to lean on constant takedown attempts, but her success rate there is only middling, and O'Neill has the grappling pedigree to scramble back up or hunt a submission. This still favors O'Neill clearly, just not quite as lopsided as the sharpest price suggests.

What beats it

If Moura keeps chaining takedown attempts and pins O'Neill against the fence round after round, this turns into a much closer grind than the striking numbers suggest.

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O'NeillTale of the tapeMoura

11–2
Record: 12–2; 28
Age: 32; 168cm
Height: 168cm; 175cm
Reach: 170cm; 2
Win streak: 0; 7.89
Strikes / min: 2.57; 52%
Strike accuracy: 37%; 1.40
Takedowns / 15m: 3.58; 34%
Takedown accuracy: 34%; 0.7
Sub attempts / 15m: 0.4

Markets

Best price highlighted

Winner

LEAN

72%O'Neill wins

DraftKings: -192/+160
FanDuel: -196/+152
BetMGM: -190/+160

Over 2.5 rounds

NEUTRAL

68%it goes past round 2

DraftKings: -245/+185