LightweightSat, Sep 199:00 PM ET

Brian OrtegavsRenato Moicano

Our read

OrtegaMoicano

40%60%

From the corner

Moicano has the length advantage here, seven centimeters of reach and eight of height, plus cleaner volume and much sharper accuracy standing and on the ground. Ortega's whole path to winning is surviving into deep water and finding a scramble submission, but Moicano's own submission awareness and improved takedown accuracy narrow that window. Both are on the older side, but Ortega's chin and durability against longer strikers has been the recurring question mark in his losses.

What beats it

If Ortega's jiu-jitsu and vaunted late-fight submission chaining find one crack in scrambles, this flips fast in his favor regardless of the striking gap.

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OrtegaTale of the tapeMoicano

16–5
Record: 21–7; 35
Age: 37; 173cm
Height: 180cm; 175cm
Reach: 183cm; 0
Win streak: 1; 3.84
Strikes / min: 4.10; 37%
Strike accuracy: 49%; 0.93
Takedowns / 15m: 1.68; 25%
Takedown accuracy: 40%; 0.9
Sub attempts / 15m: 0.6

Markets

Best price highlighted

Winner

LEAN

40%Ortega wins

DraftKings: +185/-225
FanDuel: +164/-215
BetMGM: +190/-235

Over 2.5 rounds

LEAN

60%it goes past round 2

DraftKings: -140/+110